Pop Culture for Fun

Tonight is the night of the 83rd Academy Awards. Over the past month people have been crunching numbers, taking wild guesses and trying to predict the always shifting Oscar favorites. Hours prior to the event, I decide to lay out my predictions, as well as some short thoughts on the most important categories of the evening.

Best Picture

There seems to be a general consensus that The King’s Speech will take home the trophy, and I’m inclined to agree. While usually this goes hand in hand with the Directing award, this year I’m thinking we’ll see one of those few exceptions that happen once in a while. The only true contender would be The Social Network, and, even though I find it to be a superior, if less engaging, movie, I doubt the Academy has changed so much overnight to ignore a movie like Tom Hooper’s that seems just tailored for the Oscars.

Directing

The nominees of the Directing award are a strong bunch this year. From Aronofsky to the Coen brothers, all of them have their merits. Still, David Fincher is more than likely to take home the award, save for an actual sweep of the Oscars by The King’s Speech, which happens quite rarely. Fincher has been nominated in the past and has quite the resume behind, most of which has been underrated over the years, so I expect him to take home the statuette without too much emotion.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

It’s hard to come up with a real contender to The Social Network for this one. It had great dialog and it told a story that had substance way beyond its facade of pseudo – biographical facts. Though True Grit and, most of all, Winter’s Bone did a wonderful job adapting their scripts from the original material, Aaron Sorkin pretty much has this one in the bag.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

This one will probably end up being the most disputed category of the evening…on the Internet. While I doubt that many of the Academy voters dislike Inception, I doubt they would pick it as the winner, even though there are legions on the web saying how it is one of the most original and intellectual scripts of the past years (and I somewhat agree with it, though I’m with the Academy on this one). While The Kids Are All Right and The Fighter were great acting vehicles, I expect The King’s Speech to nab this one too.

Actor in a Leading Role

This one is Colin Firth‘s. I could argue that it’s a game between 2 actors that already won an acting award, and recently, Jeff Bridges and Javier Bardem, so they’re out of the picture, 2 breakthrough performances by young actors who previously were mostly on the action or comedy side, James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg, and a veteran actor who pulled out an outstanding and subtle performance, that managed to captivate audiences, but why bother?

Actor in a Supporting Role

The field is pretty strong, and, if you were to ask me to pick a clear favorite, I’d be in a bit of a pickle, because I though every single one of these had something special. But, I do expect Christian Bale to take home the award, with yet another of his extreme physical transformation, which he had never shied away from (think The Machinist). The biggest surprise might not be that Bale takes this one, but that his first(because I’m sure he’ll pull it off again in the future) Oscar comes for a supporting role, rather than a lead.

Actress in a Leading Role

It seems to be pretty clear that Natalie Portman will take the statuette on this one. I’d feel very sorry if, by some surprise, she didn’t. The only true contender would be Annette Bening, and, though she did a great job, I would have seen her nominated in the supporting role category(if anything, The Kids Are All Right was an ensemble piece, did not exactly rest on one actor’s shoulder, and if I’m correct, Julianne Moore probably has more screentime in this one). Portman, as a former child star, and pretty big name for some time now, has the best shot of winning, as the Academy member will see this one as a talented actress reaching maturity.

Side note: If I were to pick my favorite, it would be Jennifer Lawrence’s performance in Winter’s Bone.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Regardless of the other nominees, this is more of a duel than anything else, between Melissa Leo and Hailee Steinfeld. A duel between a veteran actress and a young one. Though they both deserve to win, expect Melissa Leo to take the award, since she has been around for a while, and nominated before, and the Academy likes to reward returning customers rather than new ones.

So there it is, the top picks for the night. I also expect Toy Story 3 to win the Animated Feature Film award, as does everyone else and Roger Deakins to win for Cinematography – it would be outrageous if he didn’t, he’s done outstanding work for True Grit, and for countless other before it, not to mention he’s had 9 nominations with no win so far.